International speculation on food

By Umberto Mazzei

Umberto.mazzei@sfr.fr

Geneva, 27/01/2011

 

Henry Kissinger once said that whoever controls food controls people. In other words, every one surrenders when he sees his children starve. That is how the US Government subdued the American Indians defending their lands: by exterminating the bison that provided them food and handing them food on Reservations. Something similar to what the British government did to subdue the Boer republics in South Africa: shut the Boer civilian population into the first concentration camps ever and let them starve.

G
lobal food control is an aspiration of the international cartels, to make huge profit from it. As it is now, there are six major corporations that control the purchase and sale of agricultural products. Food prices are set at stock exchanges in Chicago, New York and London. Some countries shield their population from speculation by restricting the export of their agricultural staples until domestic demand is satisfied. Is has a clear and legitimate purpose: to stabilize domestic prices and ensure supply of its own people. Those domestic prices are also an uncomfortable testimony of real prices and hampers full market control.

This being the case, a few days ago, agriculture ministers from 50 countries met, in Berlin, to examine the rise of international prices of commodities during the second half of 2010. Before the assembly, the indefatigable Pascal Lamy, WTOÕs Director, earn merits with the global  food cartel by attacking export restrictions.  Hopefully, the cartel may hire him when he loses his present job. His intervention attributed the record high international prices of agricultural products to the export limits that some countries apply[1]. It is a case of what in US is called "spin" which is to distort the truth with a false arguments, a kind of sophistry.

"
Export restrictions are a prime cause of current and recent surges in global food prices, and countries should find other ways to secure domestic suppliesÓ said on Saturday [22/01] the WTO chief[2] . " Export restrictions lead to panic in markets when different actors see prices rising at stellar speed," At least, he said panic rather than terror!

Mr. Lamy fails to understand that a sudden rise of prices in agricultural products, as reported three weeks ago by FAO (UN Food and Agriculture Organisation), can not be attributed to controls that have always been there. Those controls, as he acknowledges, are imposed to assure the supply to the population of the producing countries and - although he did not say it- also to stabilize national and, to an extent, international agricultural prices. This last point is very annoying to the cartels that handle international trade.

Mr.Lamy proposals for a different approach
to the exporting countries need to assure their own supply are misleading. He says " global food production must be increased, more social safety nets, more food aid and food supplies and Éhumanitarian aid exempt from export restrictions."

Lets look at the increase in global food production. Countries that now must import food,  used to feed themselves until the export subsidies of rich countries ruined their farmers. It must be noticed that WTO allows subsidies to some countries and prohibits them to others. More production in countries that subsidize exports would worsen the rural crisis in the Third World. High prices will not in this case spur more production, because they do not obey to an stable demand and the price increase does not reach producers. Price manipulators are the only ones that profit from those sudden rises. An increase in food production to stabilize prices, makes sense only if it happens in those countries that lost their self sufficiency in agriculture. For that, it is necessary to eliminate export subsidies and other aids that distort agricultural prices.

Lets take a look at food aid. It is known as tool to displace and destroy local production. There are cases in which food aid is an imposed import quota, as in Guatemala, which must accept a share of "help" it does not need. Another example is Honduras, which was self-sufficient in rice before Hurricane Mish. The disaster opened the gates to thousands of tons of American ÒaidÓ rice, subsidized at 80%. Prices tumbled and killed domestic production. The case of Haiti is now notorious, because President Bill Clinton acknowledged his guilt in the destruction of Haitian agriculture, when he imposed American food aid "manu militari" and forced the Haitian government to obey the prescription of the IMF to lower its rice tariff from 35 % to 3%. All those experiences seem lost in Mr. Lamy.

Mr. Lamy said later ÒGlobally, what we would be likely to see as a result of Doha [ Round] is more food being produced where this can be done more efficientlyÓ. We would agree on that, but do not think it likely. The Doha Round was accepted by developing countries because of the mandate to eliminate subsidies that distort agricultural prices; which would make efficient producers – which are mainly in developing countries- the main actors in international trade. What happens now is that the Doha Round is stuck because rich countries do not want to reduce subsidies, but ask instead for more openness to their exports, more concessions in intellectual property and services and to reduce the space for national economic policies.

Food speculation
The IMF orders fiscal austerity to those European governments which ruined themselves by paying the debts of private banks, but fails to mention the subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy, CAP. Neither does the new Republican majority in the U.S. Congress  mention farm or export subsidies when they ask for public spending cuts. There are many among privileged people who make money with them. Austerity is focused on removing protections against poverty while there is a vertical rise in food prices and a decline in employment.

There is a process of global impoverishment caused by practices that enrich bankers and global stocks speculators. Mr. Lamy and the members of the G-20, that accuse export restrictions for rising food prices, should take a closer look at the possibility of speculation – they even omit to mention it- and aim their attention to the means and tools to drive up prices.

Economic theory says that prices follow supply and demand. While humans keep on having a single stomach, there can not be a sudden increase in demand for food. Now, is it that we will listen again, as in 2008, the tale that prices rose because of grain demand to produce ethanol?. It is a proven lie. There was no increase in ethanol production and grain prices fell as fast as they rose, all without an increase on agricultural activity. It is clear that the starving and suffering of billions in 2008 was the work of greedy price speculators.

The Establishment media tends to do little research and repeats what ever comes out of lofty mouths. Droughts and floods are not the leading cause of spikes in global food prices. Nor are export restrictions. The spikes are the work of manipulation in commodity markets, where global prices are set. The physical existence of a commodity is not even necessary to create a price, because goods are not always bought or sold, or delivered, but their prices are listed in mercantile exchanges.

Listings are typically based on the index commodity funds, which are bets on the mercantile exchange performance of an specific agricultural commodity. The handling is coordinated between institutional brokers, financial institutions and global merchants. You bet on the rise or fall of a specific product and then manipulate the price to win the bet. To make a profit it is enough to sell options, without even ownership of an existing product somewhere. You can also bet and make a profit when commodity prices collapse, by the so-called "short selling.[3]"

From 2006 to 2008 commodity prices rose scandalously, especially rice, wheat and corn. A tonne of rice rose from $ 600 in 2003 to $ 1800 in 2008. After causing popular unrest in the world, prices fell as quickly as they climbed. Further proof that the cause was not economic[4].

The last FAO report states that cereals price rose 32% in the second half of 2010 and the composite price index of sugar, meat, milk, cereals and oilseeds in December exceeded 2008 levels. If speculation is left unchecked, this time there will be riots also in Europe.

The dollar's role
A fundamental cause of price instability is the dollar increased weakness. A currency that has devalued 400% against gold and 60% against the Swiss franc, in only four years, can not be the reference for commercial value. The dollar devaluation caused loss of purchasing power to all wages, pensions and fixed incomes in the world, but also the actual reduction of all dollar denominated debts. Therefore, it is not admissible that the most indebted country in the world ensures the stability of values in international trade or the stability of anything.

It is a situation that has gradually aggravated since 1971, when the United States defaulted on its debts and repudiated the gold standard. The dollars and dollar denominated securities issued since then by the Federal Reserve and by the financial institutions supported by the Fed, largely surpasses the U.S. GDP and even the World Gross Product. It is a debt that can not be paid, which, simply put, means that the United States went bankrupt.

Conclusion
The only way to obtain price stability and start a global economic recovery is to drop the dollar, assume a more rational value for reference and discipline the operation of financial and mercantile exchanges in London, New York and Chicago. That is what the Davos gathering of international gathering should consider, but they will not. They will focus, as always, in recipes for their most immediate and exclusive prosperity.



[1] The most relevant ones are Argentina, China, India and Russia

[2] Reuters, GENEVA (updated: 2011-01-23 14:45:23 PST): WTO chief urges alternatives to food export curbs

ÒExport restrictions are a prime cause of current and recent surges in global food prices, and countries should find other ways to secure domestic supplies, the head of the World Trade Organization said on Saturday.Ó

 

[3] It is to lend stock or options from a broker, sell it and pay it to the broker at market price when it goes down .

[4] On price speculation we reccomend reading Michel Chossudovsky & Andrew Gabin Marshall, The Global Economic Crisis, the Great  Depression of the XXI Century, Chapiter 7, Ed. Global Research, Montreal, 2010